Ohio State vs. Minnesota Preview

Finally, the stretch run of Ohio State's schedule is here. However, for most Buckeye fans it's not under the best circumstances. With no JT Barrett this week due to the OVI citation and suspension it'll be Cardale Jones under center today for the Buckeyes and the spotlight is BIG. A bad game here for Ohio State could really affect their standing in the CFP poll and while it doesn't really matter until the end of the year its important that OSU looks good against weaker opponents, especially if they lose a game down the stretch to Michigan State or Michigan. An undefeated Ohio State team has nothing to worry about but a 12-1 Big Ten Champ Ohio State with bad games against teams like Minnesota, Indiana, Maryland, and NIU could be at the mercy of the playoff committee. We saw last year that the committee is going to pick the teams who are the hottest at the end with the most consistent play and if Ohio State plays poorly against Minn. this late in the season, it won't reflect well.

Keys to the Game

Don't make the same game plan mistakes as previously with Cardale

If Ohio State wants to win this game in a big way its going to come down to the play calling by Tim Beck, Ed Warriner, and Urban Meyer. We hav seen these last two weeks that Ohio State's offense is a juggernaut when you add an extra dimension with the running quarterback. But that isn't a play calling or scheme fix, that's a numbers game. We've seen over and over this season, the play callers for Ohio State fail to really adapt the scheme to fit Cardale's needs. We've seen far to many awful negative run plays from the Buckeyes offense when Cardale is in and most of those come out of the ride-read, something that we already knew Cardale doesn't do well but we keep seeing it called. Beck/Warriner/Meyer need keep Minnesota on their toes and make sure play calling isnt predictable. If they make the same mistakes as earlier this year Minnesota's defense is plenty talented enough to shut down the offense. 

Get Cardale started early

Minnesota's game plan is going to be the same as every team that has played him so far this season; sell out on the run and dare Cardale to beat you. Without the added element of quarterback running game, the offense loses a dimension. To compensate, Cardale is going to have to make all the quick and simple throws. And they need to be in rhythm with his wide receivers. The running game may look bad early, but if Jones can move the ball down the field with his arm running lanes will begin to open up. When/If that happens the running game can pound down on the Minnesota defense.

Hit Leidner and continue to hit him

Make no mistake about it Mitch Leidner is not a great true quarterback, but he is a competent college quarterback. His running game really helps Minnesota move the ball and get out of bad spots. The key for the Ohio State defense is going to make Leidner pay for running the ball. If they do so, you'll see Leidner backing away from running the ball on any read option plays making it easier to defend. This game could be a boxing match early with both teams throwing body shots and if the Buckeye defense can land some on Leidner they can shut down the Minnesota offense later in the game. 

Players of the Game

Braxton Miller

I really believe tonight will be coming out party #2 for Braxton Miller this season. I think Minnesota will give up the standard 100 yards to Elliot, and Jones will have an 'ok' game but Miller could be the game breaker. Look for a lot of snaps under center, especially in the red zone, and and a lot of deep routes. Miller could running all over the Minnesota defense 

Expectation: 4 catches for 100 yards, 1 TD               8 rushes for 65 yards, 1 TD

Darron Lee

People have really been wondering where Darron Lee has been this season and I think today is where we see him make plays. With Leidner as a running threat, expect to see Ash try and get some pressure to him with blitzes and stunts with Lee. Maybe we see a defensive touchdown this week. 

Expectation: 5 tackles, 2 for loss, 1 sack, 1 int

Prediction

Minnesota could be emotionally hungover after their close call last week with Michigan and that could really make a case for a dominate win by Ohio State. However, I don't expect that to be the case. This game has all the feeling of the Indiana game last season; a score that looks good in th box but feels bad on the field. Look for the Buckeye offense to struggle early with a few bad looking plays and Elliot getting stopped on a third down. Minnesota wont have much more luck though; maybe a Leidner long run but not much else ball movement. Ohio State will finally break through on an Elliot 10 yard run after a long punt return by Jalin Marshall. Minnesota comes back out and drive down the field for a short field goal. Then Ohio State's offense will begin to get into a groove and Cardale will hit a long ball to Miller to make it 14-3 at half. The second half will see the running game with Miller, Ellliot, and Marshall begin to really move the ball on Minnesota and running TD by Miller brings the game to 21-3. Minnesota though will finally break through and a long pass will set up a Leidner rushing touchdown, 21-10. In the fourth quarter Elliot will break his 100 yard mark and put a 50 yarder into the endzone. A late pick by the Buckeye defense will set up the game ending TD by Elliot. 

Final: OSU 35 Minnesota 13