Ohio State vs. Illinois Preview

The 'preseason' of Ohio State's schedule is over and winter is coming fast. Instead of white walkers, the buckeyes are looking toward a November battling the two top 25 ranked Michigan teams. But before that excitement really hits home, the Buckeyes are headed out west for a match up with the Fighting Illini of Illinois. While this isn't the Illinois of old, see Nathan Scheelhaase and Mikel Leshoure, this is still a talented team with a legit QB and multiple WRs. It should be a fun game up in Champagne.

Keys to the Game

Attack, Attack, Attack

This should be Ohio State's goal across the board as a team. In every phase of the game, look for Ohio State to bring the heat against Illinois and test them to see if they can hang. My guess is not. I think this will be especially important for JT Barrett and the offense as a whole. Some of these guys have never started or played in games in Champagne, and while it isnt an intimidating environment it is very different from most anywhere else, Coming back after his suspension, JT will need help from his coordinators to keep his confidence high throughout the game, especially early. Look for 10-12 passes from JT by the early 2nd. I have the feeling hat this could be a career passing day for JT

Prevent the home run

I feel like this one could be said every game but not every opponent Ohio State plays has the capability to hit a home run ball over the top; that's not the case this week. Wes Lunt is more than capable, and most likely will, take shots against the Buckeye secondary which has been pretty darn good this year but is struggling with depth issues. If Damon Webb is on the filed for any extended time look for the Illini passing attack to get vertical against him. This Ohio State defense will be more than happy to give up short ticky tacky routes because no one can score with their offense. But, a home run or two and the Illini could be right in the thick of things

Unleash the Jet Sweep

Hey look at that, an easy plug for the blog. But really though, I think this week could be one where the Buckeyes clearly have an athletic and speed edge over their opponent, Therefore, I expect to see a heavy dose of the jet sweep from Jalin Marshall, Braxton Miller, and Curtis Samuel. This play was Jalin's bread and butter late last season but Ohio State has seemed to phase it out as of late in favor of more direct snaps to Miller. These have been pretty abysmal, stay a few long runs, but if they still want to get Miller the ball on the edge why not break out the jet sweep.

Players of the Game

Joey Bosa

I know....I'm really going out on a limb on this one but I expect a lot from Bosa this afternoon. The rest of the defensive line is good enough to where teams cant simply double Bosa and try to block everyone else one on one. The Illini could be dropping back a lot this afternoon and looking deeper downfield meaning Lunt will need a lot of time. That's where Bosa fits in

Expectation: 5 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble

Jalin Marshall

Marshall has been so close on a few punts this season that he is going to break one eventually, today could be that day. Especially with how poor of a job the Illini punting has been this season, only averaging a net of 33 yards. On offense look for Marshall and Miller to be utilized similarly on jet sweeps and deep balls.

Expectation: 7 catches for 120 and 1 TD (including jet sweeps)

Game Prediction

 I'm looking at this game today as a big statement game for the Buckeyes, something they have been missing this season. The conditions in Champagne look favorable which is important considering the awful wind pattern that stadium usually gets. For that reason look for JT to air it out early and often. I expect a first drive touchdown out of Elliot on a short run after a long drive. Look for Lunt to test the Buckeye defense early and have some success, eventually getting the Illini close enough for a field goal. However that may be the extent of points for the Illini for some time. Look for JT to hit a home run to Braxton Miller on a wheel route extending the Buckeye lead to 14-3. Later in the second, Das Boot comes out and knocks down a 45 yarder bring the game to 17-3 at half. In the first drive for the Illini in the second expect a sack on a important third down by Bosa. The subsequent punt will be returned by Marshall 70 yards to push the lead to 24-3. Later in the quarter Elliot and the offensive line will begin to break the Illini defense and either Ellliot or JT will take a read option play 65 yards to the house, 31-3. Finally, in the fourth quarter look for a Wes Lunt pass to finally break the Buckeye defense and give them their first TD. Eventually thought, Bosa will have his strip sack leading to another passing TD for JT.

Final: Ohio State 45 Illinois 10

College Football Playoff Ranking Prediction (11/10)

What a weekend of college football! Fantastic match-ups across the board resulted in some fun contests to watch and a couple of upset sprinkled in. So, after this weekend here are my College Football Playoff predictions for the rankings coming out this week.

Top 4

This week could be a little tricky for the committee considering how Ohio State under performed and the romping that Oklahoma State put on TCU, However, when it shakes out I think the committee was already not high on TCU, they were undefeated and ranked 8th last week, and that will keep Oklahoma State from moving into the top 4. Clemson is the clear #1 team in the country, especially after the ground out win they had over a really good Florida State team. As for the #2 spot, I think Alabama deserve it at this point; holding Fournette to 40 yard and no TDs is about as impressive as anything in college football this season. Finally, I think Notre Dame get the #4 nod due to the all around consistent play they have been putting up all season. They play good defense and have a legit offense that can score in a multitude of ways. 

Hard to Place

There is a lot of room for movement in the #6 to #13 range and it'll be interesting to see how the committee wants to handle all these one loss teams.

I think Baylor still hangs around at #6 with just an 'ok' win at K State but they are definitely trending downward, 

Then there is the curious case of Iowa. I don't expect them to jump over a 1 loss LSU but they are undefeated and, in my mind, should be over Stanford, Florida, and Utah. However, the committee could use their so-so win over a bad Indiana team to basically keep them stagnant somewhere around 9/10. 

We saw last week that the committee was ready to reward an undefeated Memphis team for beating Ole Miss and placed them at #13. Clearly that was premature after Memphis had an awful game against Navy, losing 45-20. Now itll be interesting to see if the committee has any reservation about an undefeated Houston team, I expect to see Houston around the #19 spot; still behind teams like Florida State, Northwestern, and Mississippi. the committee could see this differently and place them as high as #15.

Final Four Prediction

Every week after the slate of games I'll be releasing my prediction on what the final four teams will be. We are still over a month out but the light at the end of the  tunnel is definitely visible.

1) Clemson (13-0) ACC Champ

2) Ohio State (13-0) Big Ten Champ 

3) Alabama (12-1) SEC Champ

4) Stanford (12-1) Pac-12 Champ

First Two Out

5) Oklahoma State (11-1) Loss to Oklahoma 

6) Baylor (11-1) Loss to Oklahoma State

Playoff

(1) Clemson vs. (4) Stanford: Clemson by 7

(2) Ohio State vs. (3) Alabama: Ohio State by 2

Clemson vs. Ohio State: Clemson by 4

Ohio State vs. Minnesota Preview

Finally, the stretch run of Ohio State's schedule is here. However, for most Buckeye fans it's not under the best circumstances. With no JT Barrett this week due to the OVI citation and suspension it'll be Cardale Jones under center today for the Buckeyes and the spotlight is BIG. A bad game here for Ohio State could really affect their standing in the CFP poll and while it doesn't really matter until the end of the year its important that OSU looks good against weaker opponents, especially if they lose a game down the stretch to Michigan State or Michigan. An undefeated Ohio State team has nothing to worry about but a 12-1 Big Ten Champ Ohio State with bad games against teams like Minnesota, Indiana, Maryland, and NIU could be at the mercy of the playoff committee. We saw last year that the committee is going to pick the teams who are the hottest at the end with the most consistent play and if Ohio State plays poorly against Minn. this late in the season, it won't reflect well.

Keys to the Game

Don't make the same game plan mistakes as previously with Cardale

If Ohio State wants to win this game in a big way its going to come down to the play calling by Tim Beck, Ed Warriner, and Urban Meyer. We hav seen these last two weeks that Ohio State's offense is a juggernaut when you add an extra dimension with the running quarterback. But that isn't a play calling or scheme fix, that's a numbers game. We've seen over and over this season, the play callers for Ohio State fail to really adapt the scheme to fit Cardale's needs. We've seen far to many awful negative run plays from the Buckeyes offense when Cardale is in and most of those come out of the ride-read, something that we already knew Cardale doesn't do well but we keep seeing it called. Beck/Warriner/Meyer need keep Minnesota on their toes and make sure play calling isnt predictable. If they make the same mistakes as earlier this year Minnesota's defense is plenty talented enough to shut down the offense. 

Get Cardale started early

Minnesota's game plan is going to be the same as every team that has played him so far this season; sell out on the run and dare Cardale to beat you. Without the added element of quarterback running game, the offense loses a dimension. To compensate, Cardale is going to have to make all the quick and simple throws. And they need to be in rhythm with his wide receivers. The running game may look bad early, but if Jones can move the ball down the field with his arm running lanes will begin to open up. When/If that happens the running game can pound down on the Minnesota defense.

Hit Leidner and continue to hit him

Make no mistake about it Mitch Leidner is not a great true quarterback, but he is a competent college quarterback. His running game really helps Minnesota move the ball and get out of bad spots. The key for the Ohio State defense is going to make Leidner pay for running the ball. If they do so, you'll see Leidner backing away from running the ball on any read option plays making it easier to defend. This game could be a boxing match early with both teams throwing body shots and if the Buckeye defense can land some on Leidner they can shut down the Minnesota offense later in the game. 

Players of the Game

Braxton Miller

I really believe tonight will be coming out party #2 for Braxton Miller this season. I think Minnesota will give up the standard 100 yards to Elliot, and Jones will have an 'ok' game but Miller could be the game breaker. Look for a lot of snaps under center, especially in the red zone, and and a lot of deep routes. Miller could running all over the Minnesota defense 

Expectation: 4 catches for 100 yards, 1 TD               8 rushes for 65 yards, 1 TD

Darron Lee

People have really been wondering where Darron Lee has been this season and I think today is where we see him make plays. With Leidner as a running threat, expect to see Ash try and get some pressure to him with blitzes and stunts with Lee. Maybe we see a defensive touchdown this week. 

Expectation: 5 tackles, 2 for loss, 1 sack, 1 int

Prediction

Minnesota could be emotionally hungover after their close call last week with Michigan and that could really make a case for a dominate win by Ohio State. However, I don't expect that to be the case. This game has all the feeling of the Indiana game last season; a score that looks good in th box but feels bad on the field. Look for the Buckeye offense to struggle early with a few bad looking plays and Elliot getting stopped on a third down. Minnesota wont have much more luck though; maybe a Leidner long run but not much else ball movement. Ohio State will finally break through on an Elliot 10 yard run after a long punt return by Jalin Marshall. Minnesota comes back out and drive down the field for a short field goal. Then Ohio State's offense will begin to get into a groove and Cardale will hit a long ball to Miller to make it 14-3 at half. The second half will see the running game with Miller, Ellliot, and Marshall begin to really move the ball on Minnesota and running TD by Miller brings the game to 21-3. Minnesota though will finally break through and a long pass will set up a Leidner rushing touchdown, 21-10. In the fourth quarter Elliot will break his 100 yard mark and put a 50 yarder into the endzone. A late pick by the Buckeye defense will set up the game ending TD by Elliot. 

Final: OSU 35 Minnesota 13

College Football Playoff Standings 11/3

The Run Down

Rankings Week 1

First Four

I really think the CFP committee hit the nail on the head with these top four. 

Clemson has clearly been playing the most consistently dominate football against a solid, but not great, strength of schedule. The wins over Notre Dame and Georgia Tech are really carrying good weight at this point and a win this weekend against Florida State could solidify that #1 ranking even further. I'm not sure if I see a spot left on Clemson's schedule for them to slip up. 

This weekend's LSU/ Alabama match up has massive implications for both teams chances to get into the playoff. If LSU wins, Alabama is staring down a two loss record with tough games at Miss. State and at Auburn coming up. Alabama really has a lot to lose in this game and they haven't looked very dominant so far. As for LSU, if they lose this game they lose control of their destiny in the SEC east and if Alabama doesn't lose another game they will end up out of the SEC championship. We have seen how important championship game weekend is and not playing in one could leave LSU on the outside looking in.

As for Ohio State, I think the committee placed them right where they deserve to be. This team still is composed of a majority of the players that beat Alabama and Oregon last season so the potential is there however, they haven't looked anywhere near expected. With the JT Barrett suspension coming at a bad time it'll be interesting to see where Ohio State ends up next week if they struggle again this weekend with Cardale under center.

Rest of the Top 10

Two teams that stick out right away in the top ten are TCU and Baylor. The committee has really shown that they aren't roused by 50-60 point games that don't include any defense. TCU has given up 37, 55, and 45 to SMU, Texas Tech, and Kansas State, respectively. That's not a championship defense and Baylor hasn't been much better with 31 to Lamar and 38 to West Virginia. Broken down simply, these teams play each other in the last game of the season and whoever loses that game is out of the playoff, regardless of record.

I think Notre Dame is in a very interesting position. Onto their third quarterback, after the transfer of Golson and loss of Zaire, they are still playing well as a team and showing the ability to win games late; a sign of a strong team. The key to their season will be the last game at Stanford. I don't expect Notre Dame to win that game but it could very well be whats holding them back from making the playoff

For all the talk of the Big Ten's old ways being out of date they still have three teams in the top 10. Iowa could very well, and will most likely will, end the season undefeated and in the top 7/8 with a date against the Big Ten East champ in the Big Ten Championship game. Michigan State has the talent to get into the playoff but so far this season I haven't seen that dominate factor that they showed last year. Every week that win over Oregon looks less impressive and ugly wins over Rutgers/Western Michigan/Air Force don't help.

Florida will almost certainly be in the SEC Championship game, most likely ranked around 7/8, however I don't expect them to win that game regardless of the opponent. That means their out.

Rest of the Top 25

Stanford and Utah at 11 and 12 are both heading toward a collision course. Regardless of Stanford's outcomes against Notre Dame they have a 3 game lead on the rest of their division and should make it into the Pac-10 championship against Utah who also has a solid lead. Stanford probably has the best leverage to get into the playoff if they can beat Notre Dame at home and Utah on a neutral site. 

I'm a bit surprised to see Memphis so high (13) but Paxton Lynch has shown he has all the requisite skills to lead his team to a stellar season. I'm tremendously looking forward to the 11/14 matchup between Memphis and Houston, which could be Memphis's best win on their schedule next to Ole Miss. If they can run the table they will be unbeaten with wins at home against Ole Miss, at Temple, and at Houston. Those are all solid top 25 teams; it might be tough to keep them out of the playoff if this scenario plays out

I expect Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, and Baylor to canalize each other and most likely end up with an undefeated or one loss TCU coming out of the Big 12 . The same goes for Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Texas A&M with none of those teams making the SEC championship