Ohio State vs. Rutgers Preview

The story of the Ohio State football program this week was the move to JT Barrett at quarterback and today will be the opportunity for JT to show he;s the man for the future. The Buckeyes will be making their first trip to Piscataway as a Big Ten rival and the Scarlet Knights have the potential to give this Ohio State team some issues. While they don't have the athletic depth the Buckeye have, Rutgers does have arguably the best receiver in the Big Ten in Sr. standout Leonte Carroo. The secondary for Ohio State has played well all year however we have seen in the past that Chris Ash's quarters coverage is susceptible to the big play and you better believe that Carroo cant take advantage of any space he gets. Rutgers (3-3) is coming off a huge come from behind victory against Indiana and the week before took Michigan State deep into the 4th quarter. The Buckeyes will need to be ready for a game to ensure a victory in Piscataway.

Keys to the Game

Stop the Big Play

As mentioned above, Rutgers has the Big Ten's best wide receiver in Levonte Caroo and big play receivers tend to make big plays against Ohio State's defense. If Ohio State wants to make a statement today in Piscataway it will be important to hold off any big plays from Carroo that could cause a momentum change and get the crowd in the game. Plain and simple, if Carroo plays today he is going to get his, at least 100 yards, especially since their is a good chance the knights will be down in the score and throwing a lot. It would behoove Vonn Bell and Tyvis Powell to make sure Carroo isn't getting behind anyone all game. 

Take shots down the field

This is something that the Ohio State offense hasn't done very well all season but in order to play to their potential is going to have to get done. At some point during this game the Rutgers defense is going to bear down on JT and the running game with 8/9 defenders in the box and JT is going to have to show his ability to stretch the field vertically. This was what allowed JT and his offense to be so successful last year, JT and Tom Herman/Urban Meyer were dialed in on when to exploit defense's over-commitment to the run and throw play action. Look for those play action passes when they come.

Let JT come into his own

Today is JT Barrett day for the Scarlet and Gray,. Earlier this year I wrote that this QB battle was really getting to Barrett and it has seemed that these past couple games running the redzone offense has helped him tremendously. It'll be important for Barrett to continue this momentum and start to settle into the offense. When he is playing clear headed and confident he is the best quarterback in the Big Ten.

Players to Watch

JT Barrett

This is JT's opportunity to become 'the guy' for this team. He already is so as a leader but I think this offense needs him more than ever. Look Beck and Urban to let JT settle in early but getting the ride read and QB stretch game moving. Once they get some success running the ball expect Meyer to let JT sling it around the field. It wouldnt surprise me if JT throws the ball 30 times today

Expectation: 19-27 280 yards 4TDs   14 carries, 85 yards 1 TD

Vonn Bell

Bell has had an All Big Ten type of year however he has looked out of position against slot receivers  at times. That'll be important today as Rutgers will look to move Carroo around and try to get him favorable match ups against linebackers and safeties like Bell. Bell will have to make sure he is communicating and on the right page with guys like Darron Lee, especially when passing off receivers over the middle.

Expectation: 2 PBs, 6 Tackles

Prediction

Seven games into this season I still don't think that we know much about the identity of this Ohio State team but today could be the beginning of a roll. With JT taking over the reins expect a heavy dose of JT, Elliot, and Miller early today with a few easy pitch and catch throws from Barrett. The Buckeyes will jump out to an early 14-0 lead after a Barrett pass and Elliot run. As the first half goes on look for the Rutgers run game to hit a few 10 yard runs and Carroo to have 3/4 receptions. Early in the second quarter Carroo will get loose and take one home from 30 yards out bringing the game to 14-7. Ohio State will go back to the run game to quiet the crowd and at the right moment JT will throw a 60 yard bomb to Miller streaking over the middle. Halftime score: 21-7. Expect the Ohio State offense to really open up in the second half with Barrett completing 6 passes on a drive and tossing a TD to Thomas to bring the score to 28-7. Look for a big third down sack/forced fumble by Tyquan Lewis that Ohio State recovers setting up another TD toss by Barrett, again to Thomas. Finally look for the Rutgers offense to move the ball with Carroo and score an early fourth quarter TD, 35-14. Finally, a late drive with Elliot taking a majority of the carries will end with an Elliot TD,

Final: Ohio State 42-14 

Ohio State vs. Penn State Preview

The Dark Night is upon us! After the rumors over these past few years have circled on the black jerseys, tonight we will finally see. Of course, the traditionalists will never be happy to see anything other than the scarlet and gray but the hype is palpable. Especially for the few big time recruits coming into town this evening including Jaylen Kelly-Powell(Cass Tech), Ambry Thomas(Detroit), and Wayne Davis (Virginia). After one heck of a game last year at Penn State, tonight has the feeling of a big opportunity for Ohio State to solidify that #1 ranking.

Keys to the Game

Stick to the run game on offense

Teams have a tendency to abandon the running game when it struggles, especially when those struggles continue into the second quarter but Ohio State has to remain patient and allow its offensive gameplan to take effect. We have seen plenty this year how talented Penn State's defensive line is and also how the Buckeye's offensive line has been slow to get started. This is going to be the biggest facet of the game. While the Buckeyes may struggle to get the run started early, if they move on from it too soon you will see a ton of pressure in Cardale Jones' face, which obviously is to the advantage of Penn State and their Big Ten leading 20 sacks.

Score early and make the crowd a factor

Football is a sport where momentum reins supreme. We saw it last year during Ohio State's championship run and we are starting to see it this season. Coming off a solid win and overall outing against Maryland, the OSU offense needs to keep that continuity flowing and find a way to score early against Penn State. If one thing is clear in this game it is that one on one, Penn State does not have the offensive firepower to stick with the Ohio State offense. Therefore, they will be relying on their defense to make key plays in big situations and their offense to capitalize when they get close. This is where the crowd becomes a huge part. If the Buckeyes can jump out to an early 10/14 point lead they can lean on the crowd energy to keep their defense playing hard and making life hard for Hackenburg and the Nittany Lion offense

Keep Penn State's defense guessing in the red zone

We saw last week that Ohio State's new red zone package was wildly effective with JT Barrett at the helm. However, their play close to the goal line cannot become predictable or we will begin to see negative plays and turnovers. Last week JT ran the outside zone QB run five times in goal line situations, expect Penn State to be ready for those plays. If Ohio State makes the right play action reads off of that same set-up they should see positive results

Players to Watch

Chase Ferris, RT

Ferris has had his ups and downs so far this season especially in pass protection. Last week, against Maryland, he preformed excellently in downhill run blocking something that Ohio State has sorely needed this year. If he can keep that good play going, this offensive line could make a big move tonight against a really solid defense.

Raekwon McMillan

McMillan entered this season with huge expectations to become Ohio State's next #1 linebacker and he hasn't disappointed. Tonight will no doubt be the biggest challenge of his career. McMillan has to ensure he makes the correct play calls and is sure tackling throughout the night. The most important aspect of his play though will be his ability to pick up on play fakes and get into his drop or pressure Hackenburg before he has time to set up a deep throw. 

Prediction

Ohio State has been waiting for this moment all year. A chance to turn around the "not really #1" mantra. A game where the Buckeyes are considered the favorites but some believe Penn State will make this a game. However, under the light at Ohio Stadium I dont expect such a favorable outcome for the Nittany Lions. Look for early running game struggles for Ohio State turning into the same short drives for Penn State. After a few slow drives, Cardale Jones will find Braxton Miller open deep over the middle resulting in a short Buckeye field goal. On the subsequent drive a turnover due to a strip sack of Hackenburg will put the OSU offense onto a short field. From there, JT Barrett will capitalize on his first passing TD since NIU. Add in a Penn State field goal early in the second quarter. Before half the Buckeyes will start a possession on their own 30 and drive down with Elliot runs to the 20 before Jones finishes the drive with a touchdown to Michael Thomas. Expect a halftime score of 17-3 Buckeyes. When the second half begins Penn State will get off to a solid drive down to the Buckeye 25 and will finish the drive with a throwback screen to bring the score back to one TD, 17-10. Late in the third, Elliot will begin to wear down the Penn State defense and take a run in from 30 yards out. Expect more of the same in the fourth with another Elliot TD and a excellent goal line stand from the Buckeye defense. 

Final: Ohio State 34-16

Ohio State vs. Maryland Preview

Fall is upon us! And winter is coming... Enter the 2-3 Maryland Terrapins into Ohio Stadium for the second game of Big Ten play. Ohio State comes into this game undefeated but with its fair share of issues. This is the point in a season where a team like Ohio State wants to begin clicking on all cylinders and today could be that opportunity. Maryland enters this game on a two game losing streak, West Virginia and Michigan, being outscored 73-6. Throughout this season Maryland has struggled to pick a quarterback and their combined efforts have resulting in 15 interceptions. This week presents an important opportunity for Ohio State to begin the train rolling.

Keys to the Game 

Use Elliot early up the middle

If one thing is clear so far this season for Ohio State's offense, it is that Ezekiel Elliot is still just as good as he was during that National Championship run, maybe better. If this Ohio State offense is going to continue to evolve Urban Meyer, Ed Warriner, and Tim Beck need to realize that the offensive identity is changing. With Cardale Jones at the helm this is no longer an "east-west", run you out of the building offense this is a power run, hard play action team. And you want to know how a power /counter offense runs that best? Give the ball to your Heisman hopeful running back. 25 times. At least.

Make plays on the ball defensively

As mentioned above, the Maryland offense has really struggled this year with turning the ball over. Caleb Rowe has thrown 12 interceptions and 3 lost fumbles himself. Clearly this is a trend that doesn't seem to be going away. Ohio State has had their own issues with throwing interceptions but has one of the best turnover defenses in the country with 6 picks and fumble recoveries with 3 return touchdowns. The opportunities will be present today for takeaways and the Ohio State defense needs to capitalize on those. We are looking at you, Tyvis Powell, there isn't room for any more dropped interceptions this season. Those kind of plays are difference makers deeper in the season.

Use Miller vertically not laterally 

People around Ohio State this season have been wondering when is a deep threat going to present itself? With the '12-gauge' arm of Cardale Jones this offense has been waiting for a player to emerge, similar to Devin Smith, but to no avail. Another issue this offense has had is what to do with Braxton Miller. Miller had his coming out party against Virginia Tech with two long touchdowns but his usage has been relatively predictable beyond that. The evolution on this passing game counts on a deep threat and I believe Braxton can fill that role. Devin Smith caught many of his long TDs (see Michigan State last year) in the slot role, running the seam route between the safety and slot corner. Expect to see Miller used in that role. And when in the backfield expect to see Miller next to Cardale and Elliot running counter plays. But not from the wildcat, expect to see him lined up in a running back position allowing him to get up into the hole quickly.

Players to Watch

Braxton Miller 

See above reasons.

Expectation: 3 catches, 95 yards, 1 TD              3 rushes, 38 yards

Vonn Bell

Every week I select a defensive player I want to take Bosa because he will eventually break out but I dont think that day is today. His double and triple teams take its toll but expect him and Washington to consistently put big pressure on Rowe. Due to the pressure and Rowe's previous play I expect balls to be floated into coverage. That's where Vonn Bell comes in.

Expectation: 7 Tackles, 2 Pass Break ups, 2 Interceptions

Prediction

Ohio State enters this game with an excellent opportunity to gets its offense on track, especially with more potent Big Ten teams on the way. This afternoon could be the perfect storm of opportunistic defense and short fields for this offense to make plays on. Expect to see Elliot take the ball down the field early with Cardale completing some intermediate but routine passes and Ohio State to be up 14-0 at the end of the first quarter. The defense will play lock down and eventually take advantage of a poor pass by Rowe in the second quarter for their first of three picks on the afternoon. With a lot of momentum on their side expect to see Cardale finally hit that long ball to Miller, somewhere in the range of 50 yards, for their third TD of the game. Finally Maryland will sneak in a field goal and take a 21-3 deficit into half. Expect two more interceptions from the Ohio State defense in the second half and two more touchdown passes from Cardale. With time running down in the fourth quarter Maryland will eventually put one into the endzone making the score 35-10. Finally, Look for Mike Weber to get his first carries of the season late and actually take off on a 20 yard scamper to complete the rout. 

Final Score: OSU 42 Maryland 10

Ohio State v. Indiana Preview

Welcome to Big Ten play folks, where most offensive plays consist of three yards and a cloud of dust. Hopefully the exception being this high powered Ohio State offense. Last week OSU finished a solid game against a trendy Western Michigan team 38-12, while Indiana posted a seven point win over Wake Forest. Indiana enters this game 4-0, tied for the Big Ten West lead with Penn State, Michigan State, and Ohio State. Their high octane passing and rushing attack will be looking to make an upset today against the favored Buckeyes. Ohio State fans know all to well how weary to be of this Indiana program as they have consistently given Ohio State fits over the past few seasons. However for Indiana, that hasn't resulted in a win against the Buckeyes since 1988.

Keys to the Game

1) Set up the play action and hit big throws 

Over the past four weeks Indiana's defensive backfield has been consistently getting burned over the top. Teams like Wake Forest, Southern Illinois, and Western Kentucky have combined for 6 touchdown throws of over 60 yards and 13 passing TDs overall. Cardale could have a career passing game if he follows his keys well and this Ohio State offensive line protects him well. It also relies heavily on Ezekiel Elliot making life tough for these Indiana linebackers. If he can pound the middle don't be surprised to see Indiana trying to sneak another defender in the box, allowing a receiver to get behind the defense 

2) Cardale and his pocket awareness

Since the beginning of the season people inside and outside the Buckeye program have seemed to be back and forth on this quarterback quandary. However after JT's performances lately the trend has been toward Cardale and Meyer proved that last week with JT only receiving one late drive. Therefore, for this team to become a legitimate title contender we have to see Cardale begin to make progress and evolve as a passer. One of the things I have been noticing over the first few weeks, and something I believe has lead to his int's/poor plays has been his pocket awareness. While the blocking of Chase Ferris specifically has been in question there have been multiple occasions where Cardale has put himself in bad positions by leaving a clean pocket too soon or failing to step up past edge rushers. All of the best QBs, see Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, have this innate ability to sense a rush and move the pocket to keep a throwing window open. Cardale doesn't have to be 'Tom Brady' good but this ability could result in a lot  more big plays and a lot less dead plays.

3) Defensively, make a decision on Darron Lee's position

As a few of you may have noticed, and Urban Meyer certainly did, Ohio State's linebackers did not play particularly well this past week. However, after rewatching the game film against Western Michigan I believe this has much more to do with scheme and much less to do with the talent at linebacker. Against three and more wide receiver fronts Chris Ash chose to move Darron Lee out on the edge to face up with the slot wide receiver. This put the Buckeye defense at a numbers disadvantage as they only kept two LBs and four lineman close to the line against the five down lineman and one tight end for Western Michigan. This alignment made it so McMillan and Perry could never be right in their run fit because the outside hole, responsible for by Lee, was usually quite vacated. As the game progressed the Chris Ash chose to move a safety down to split the coverage with Lee so he could play a bit closer to the line. Look for that to be the alignment they have going forward.

Players to Watch

Sam Hubbard

Over these past few weeks Sam Hubbard has been closer and closer to having a breakout game and I think this is the one where it happens. With Joey Bosa getting consistent double and even triple teams someone on the edge besides Darron Lee is going to be getting a single block. hubbard has shown he has the strength and speed to get by offensive tackles but also has seemed to play a bit tentative. Watch for him on clear passing downs to pin his ears back and get after the QB.

Expectation: 1 sack, 4 tackles, I forced fumble

Curtis Samuel

While people have been talking about Braxton Miller finally being the 'Percy Harvin' player that Meyer has been missing all these years, I think the real 'Harvin' has been here all along. Samuel showed last year as a true freshman that he coudl be trusted to carry the ball out fo the backfield as well as run routes and this season he has only gotten better. He has been a big play machine(see Virginia Tech and Western Michigan)  but somehow has gone under the radar. This is the game I think he has his Ohio State coming out party. Expect to see him catch passes and take carrries lined up as a slot wide receiver and in the backfield. 

Expectation: 6 catches for 80 yards, 1 TD (including jet sweeps) and a rushing TD

Prediction

Ohio State enters Indiana with four non-conference wins and hungry to prove themselves as the real deal. I think the early season struggles were good for a team that may have needed to bring themselves back down to reality. But they enter this contest against a hungry Indiana team. Nate Sudfield and company are hitting on all cylinders and expecting to bring the fight tot he Buckeyes. Expect this one to be close early on with the Buckeye offense scoring on their first two possessions and the Indiana offense on one. Look for Elliot and company to get rolling, setting up Cardale with a long pass TD before halftime, Score at half: 24-13 Buckeyes. Expect more of the same for the second half with Ohio State taking a 34-20 lead into the fourth quarter after Sudfield makes a mistake and throws a pick to Apple. Finally, look for Curtis Samuel to take a jet sweep the distance early in the fourth and push the Buckeyes onward to victory.

Ohio State 44 Indiana 20